Poker Equity Explained

What equity is

Equity is your share of the pot if all the cards were dealt out with no more betting. It counts wins in full and ties as a split, so a hand that wins 40% and ties 10% has 45% equity.

Equity changes on every street. A hand that is a big favourite before the flop can be far behind after it.

Exact versus simulated

Before the flop, two hands face 1,712,304 possible five-card boards. A computer can deal every one and count the results, which gives the exact answer. Seven2Offsuit does this for its matchup pages and the Odds Lab.

Against ranges there are far more combinations, so calculators deal a large random sample instead and report a margin. With 200,000 deals the error is usually a fraction of a percent.

Famous matchups

AA against KK is about 82% to 18%. A pocket pair against two higher cards, such as QQ against AK offsuit, is about 57% to 43%, the classic coin flip. AK suited against AK offsuit ties about 91% of the time.

Equity against a range

At the table you almost never know your opponent's exact cards. What matters is your equity against every hand they would play the same way: their range. A hand that is crushed by one holding can still be a favourite against the whole range.

Equity is also not the same as winnings. Position, stack depth and skill decide how much of your equity you actually realise, which is why a call needs a little more than the bare pot odds when you are out of position.

Questions

What does 60% equity mean?

If the hand were played out from this point many times with no more betting, you would win 60% of the pot on average.

How are ties counted in equity?

A tie counts as half a win between two players, or a third of a win in a three-way split.